Last week the Minister of Police Nathi Mthethwa presented the nation with our annual dose of crime statistics and the Marikana Commission suspended its work after hearing that the evidence of the South African Police Services to the Commission is ‘in material respects not the truth’.
The serious charge was made by Adv Geoff Budlender, the evidence leader, who alleged that the Commission uncovered discrepancies in the SAPS’ documentary evidence, including evidence deliberately hidden or fabricated.
The suspension of the Marikana hearing was to ‘give the SAPS an opportunity to explain itself’.
It is against this serious allegation that some South African statisticians and crime analysts are questioning the methodology of establishing the SAPS crime statistics.
Naturally one expects the Minister and his officials to gild the statistical lily – and they did, to show how efficient and responsive they are to crime – but the credibility chasm generated by Adv Budlender’s unexpected challenge came as a major embarrassment.
It seems as if the Minister’s greatest gaffe was heeding the advice of those who persuaded him not to use absolute, understandable terms in listing increases and decreases in categories of crime, but in using the ‘rate per 100 000 of population’ to measure the outcomes.
More murders
For instance Mthethwa conceded that we witnessed ‘a slight increase of 0,6%’, in the murder rate. Fact is, there were 16 259 murders in the country in 2012/13. In the previous year there were 15 609, which represents a 4.2% increase.
Using the state’s ‘rate per 100 000 mode’ gives them a golden reflection, but is anomalous to when the State publishes questionable unemployment models based on foreign norms relating to highly industrialised western European models to produce all sorts of weird and wonderful ratios.
Population rate increases and decreases were also applied (data source: www.saps.gov.sa) to other categories of crime – murder, rape, attempted murder, assault, robbery, hijacking, possession of unlicensed firearms, arson, damage to property, housebreaking, stock theft, drug trafficking, commercial crimes, culpable homicide, kidnapping, public violence, driving under influence of liquor/drugs and more.
The resulting credibility gap between the public and the SAPS is most unfortunate and could be due to many things, among other, Budlender’s robust questioning of the SAPS evidence, the discrediting, in a highly public fashion of former Police Commissioners, the both hiring and firing within hours of Lt General Zuma as Gauteng’s top cop, allegations of police brutality, corruption in die ranks of the SAPS, allegations of poor training and a totally unconvincing prosecution rate.
Massively overshadowing all other crime statistics however is the undoubtedly huge increase – calculated by whatever method – of 54,8% in public violence incidents in 2012/13.
No doubt this is owing to both widespread and violent service delivery protests as well as the violence accompanying the record number of illegal strikes.
