How will Zululanders vote?
‘It will be a 61 – 63% win for the ANC’ – predicts political analyst Dr Christopher Isike
ZULULAND political commentators say voters will be torn between the issue of corruption and the ‘good story to tell’ when they head to the polls on Wednesday.
Dr Christopher Isike, who is Head of Department: Political Science and Public Administration at the University of Zululand, said he did not expect voter apathy to prevent people from voting.
‘The voter turnout might not be as high as it was in the past, but it will not be significantly low to warrant concern.’
He said voters, who highlighted the country’s corruption and the Nkandla issue, would sway instead towards the EFF or DA.
‘The whole ANC campaign of the ‘good story to tell’ will play a role in tilting undecided voters and will attract voters who are sympathetic to the party for what it has done. Hopefully in the next five years, people will talk about issues rather than sentiments of the past.’
However, Isike said the ANC would still secure a win of between 61% and 63%.
‘The ANC will not win up to 65% but it will not be below 60%. The ANC has a way of bouncing back and surprising everyone especially in 2009 when COPE formed. But the ‘Zuma’ factor is not as strong as it was in 2009,’ said Isike.
He said youngsters were questioning political policy and more were bring attracted to the EFF.
‘The question, however, is whether these youngsters are registered. The ANC did not expect opposition in the form of EFF. This shows that if a credible party comes and is led by black intelligence, it could be an indicator of things to come,’ Isike said.
Candidates
Meanwhile, the final party candidate list shows a total of 8 651 candidates of 45 political parties. This is slightly fewer than the 9 117 candidates who appeared on the final lists for the 2009 election.
They will contest 400 National Assembly and 430 provincial legislature seats respectively – giving candidates an overall statistical 1-in-10 chance of election.
Men continue to make up the bulk of candidates with 59.8% of the total candidates compared to 40.2% women.
However, gender representation continues to show steady improvement over the years: 1999 (26.76%), 2004 (30.65%) and 2009 (38.5%).
With regards to age, candidates over 40-years-old comprise 64.86% of the total – with candidates under 30-years-old comprising just 11.8% of candidates overall.
