I was reading the latest update about the Greenpeace activists being jailed by Russia for protesting over oil drilling in the Arctic and I suddenly got a strange sense of déjà vu.
It took me back 27 years when I was working for the Daily News and was sent to the Transkei to cover the funeral of the Xhosa king and ANC stalwart, Sabata Dalindyebo.
The ANC was banned in those days and Kaiser Matanzima, President of the Transkei Bantustan, was determined to prevent the funeral from being turned into a highly-charged political rally. So he seized King Sabata’s body from the mortuary and planted it into the ground before any ceremony could take place.
When the press arrived, we were chased away at gunpoint. Matanzima himself was pointing an Uzi at us.
We were then detained at the cemetery car park and told anyone leaving would be shot. At this point a Brit journalist strode up to some Transkei cop and demanded to be allowed to go, concluding with the timeworn phrase, ‘Do you know who I am?’
I didn’t. So I’m damn sure the cop didn’t either. Instead the Brit was frog-marched back to his car and his vehicle was searched with extreme prejudice.
I was standing next to a black journalist from Johannesburg who caught my eye and slightly shook his head. I nodded, understanding completely what was in that charged eye contact. He was telling me to do the African thing – say nothing, do nothing. Be neither deferential nor aggressive.
He and I were the first to be released six hours later. We shook hands and wished each other a safe journey – no small request at the time. The Brit was still demanding, or begging, if anyone knew him.
Okay – what has that to do with Greenpeace’s protest in Russia?
It’s this: Matanzima didn’t give a flying fig what the rest of the world thought then about seizing a king’s corpse, and Russia does so even less about jailing Western activists now.
And if a tinpot President of a Bantustan felt free to aim an Uzi at the international press corps in 1986, I wonder how much Russian President Putin worries about a group of weekend eco-warriors today?
Greenpeace is used to having its own way and getting fawning media splashes. They routinely break laws in Britain when they invade oil companies and abseil down buildings to unfurl banners proclaiming capitalism is very naughty. You or I would get jailed for that, but Greenpeace gets wrist-smacks.
The worst they have to face is Japanese whalers firing water cannons at them. If the eco-warriors fell into the ocean, the whalers would rescue them under the rules of the sea. That’s because Japan, like us, obey rules.
Fear factor
Russia is no Japan. It’s like the Transkei – except a gazillion times more powerful. Greenpeace didn’t bank on that. They didn’t take into account that Putin is Matanzima on steroids.
The first bit of horse-trading has already happened with piracy charges against Greenpeace being downgraded to hooliganism. That carries a mere seven years in a Gulag, as opposed to 15 for piracy. Yet after two months, 20 of the activists are still in jail.
Greenpeace is now afraid. Very afraid.
I’m notoriously bad at predictions, but I’m going to make one anyway. It’s common cause that Russia is aiming to be the world’s key energy supplier. It already supplies most of Europe with gas and Siberian reserves are humungous.
However, America is likely to be an even bigger player as it has four more times the recoverable oil in shale than Saudi Arabia does in desert wells. But – and this is crucial – Greenpeace and the powerful greenie movement is hellbent on hamstringing shale oil extraction.
So what we could well see is a form of non-cash ransom. Russia will eventually give Greenpeace’s Arctic activists another wrist-smack and they’ll walk free.
However, the payback will be massive. In return, Greenpeace will unleash its activism on an unprecedented scale against Western energy suppliers. But there will be no mention of Russia.
Call me a cynic – or even better, buy me a beer if I’m right.
