On paper Zuma is out…but this IS politics.
The Secret Ballot vote of no confidence against President Jacob Zuma will be debated at 2pm in Parliament this afternoon
IF one had to play the numbers game and go on what political parties have been saying leading up to this afternoon’s vote of no confidence against President Jacob Zuma, it would seem that Msholozi will be ousted.
But knowing that this is a game of politics as much as it is a numbers game, the big man might live to fight another day – much like Pierce Brosnan during his 007 career.
Let us not forget that this is not the first motion of no confidence against Zuma.
Today marks the eighth vote of no confidence motion that he has had to face during his tenure as President.
Opposition parties are confident that this time around (funnily enough, the 8th time on the 8th day of the 8th month) will lead to Zuma’s demise.
It’s also worth noting that if Zuma is ousted, others will follow suit in the form of his entire chosen cabinet, with the exception of Minister of Water and Sanitation, Nomvula Mokonyane and Minister of Public Works Nathi Nhleko, as the two were not initially members of Parliament.
If Zuma is ousted, Speaker of Parliament Baleka Mbete will occupy the role of Acting President for the next 30 days.
December would mark Zuma’s last term as the President for the ANC, however his official term as President of the Republic of South Africa would run until next year.
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What will determine Zuma’s fate?
• The National Assembly (Parliament) has 400 seats, of which the ANC occupy 249.
• Opposition parties combined have 151 seats.
• Essentially this would mean that of the 400 seats in the National Assembly, there would have to be 201 votes in favour of the no confidence motion in order to oust President Zuma.
Deciding Factors
• During the EFF’s 4th anniversary address at Curries Fountain in Durban last week, Julius Malema went on record that he and his party lobbied ‘about 60 ANC MPs’ to vote against Zuma today. If his claims hold any truth, it would seem that, on paper at least, Zuma is out.
• Another interesting point to note is that during the SACP’s July congress, the party reiterated a call for Zuma to step down. This is vital to the outcome of this afternoon’s secret ballot as the SACP has members within the National Assembly who serve under the ticket of the ANC, but whose loyalty essentially lies with the SACP.
These include Minister Blade Nzimande, Sports Minister Thula Nxesi and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Senzeni Zokwana.
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