All is fair in class warfare

NOW that the ANC has lost its grip on Gauteng and Port Elizabeth – over and above the Western Cape – which altogether make up 60% of the country’s economy, the future of the ruling party has become a hotly debated subject.

The Institute of Race Relations (IRR) CEO, Dr Frans Cronjé, said the performance of the ANC in the local government election raises the spectre of the party losing its national majority in the 2019 national and provincial elections.

‘The results are devastating for the ANC and we expect that opposition parties will redouble their efforts to undermine the party on issues ranging from corruption to Jacob Zuma and South Africa’s weak economic performance.

‘We ascribe most of the ANC’s poor political performance to the economy.

‘There is a close correlation between the economic standing of households and their confidence in the future.

‘In real terms, GDP per capita levels are falling, which last happened during the year of the global financial crisis and before that, in the volatile 1980s.

‘If the ANC cannot secure an economic turnaround ahead of 2019, let alone if South Africa slips into recession, then the race for 2019 will be extremely close.

‘If GDP per capita keeps falling, or falls very sharply, we might even raise the prospect of a 2019 ANC defeat to a probability.

‘Frighteningly for the ANC, many of its economic policies seem almost calculated to slow economic progress.

‘We wait to see whether it can react to save itself.’

Associate Professor in the Faculty of Commerce Administration and Law at the University of Zululand (Unizul), Dr Irrshad Kaseeram, believes it will all come down to the parties’ focus on SA’s different social classes.

‘While the DA has secured strong support from the middle class, the ANC still maintains the stronghold with the working class, who benefit from the social grant system.

‘I believe the ANC will still win the national elections, but with a slim majority, unless they put more focus on middle class demands such as reforming policies to attract more foreign investment and eradicating corruption.

‘On the other hand, the DA could stand a chance of majority if they bolster support from the working class. ‘It will all come down to solid strategies,’ said Kaseeram.

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